Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming Chile Primera game between CD Palestino and CD La Serena, scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CD Palestino | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| Draw | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| CD La Serena | 48% YES | 52% NO |
CD Palestino will host CD La Serena in Chile's Primera División on 15 May 2026 at 8:00 PM ET. The market settles on the halftime result—whether Palestino leads, the sides are level, or La Serena leads after 45 minutes plus stoppage time. Current Polymarket order book activity prices a Palestino halftime win at 47% implied probability, reflecting modest favouritism for the home side.
Palestino's recent form and home advantage typically support stronger first-half performance than away sides in the Chilean top flight. Historically, halftime results in this fixture have favoured the home team in roughly 55–60% of matches over the past three seasons, though La Serena has shown resilience in away fixtures. The current 47% probability sits below this historical baseline, suggesting either that La Serena's recent away form has improved or that Palestino's current squad lacks the early-match dominance seen in prior campaigns. Traders should examine both sides' opening-half goal-scoring patterns and defensive stability from their most recent fixtures.
Team news and injury status remain critical catalysts before kick-off. Confirmation of starting lineups typically arrives 60–90 minutes before match time, which may shift the order book significantly if key attacking or defensive personnel are unavailable. Weather conditions at Palestino's home ground and any recent fixture congestion affecting either squad's preparation should also inform positioning. The settlement window closes at midnight UTC on 16 May, allowing only the halftime whistle to determine the outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://anfp.cl/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CD Palestino vs. CD La Serena - Halftime Result" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://anfp.cl/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 16 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: