Resolution criteria on PolyGram: More markets for the Bundesliga game, scheduled for May 9 at 12:30 PM ET.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| FC Bayern München (-1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| FC Bayern München (-2.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
VfL Wolfsburg will host FC Bayern München on 9 May 2026 in a Bundesliga fixture scheduled for 12:30 PM ET. This represents a late-season encounter between a mid-table side and the league's dominant force. The settlement window closes at 16:30 UTC on match day, allowing roughly four hours post-kick-off for final order flow before resolution.
The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the market's current assessment of the specific outcome this market measures, though the exact settlement criteria remain the defining factor in how traders should interpret this pricing. Bayern's historical dominance in Bundesliga fixtures—they have won eleven consecutive league titles through 2024—provides context for how comparable markets have priced Bayern involvement. However, late-season Bundesliga matches occasionally produce atypical results when title races are settled or when teams rotate squads ahead of European commitments. The order book depth and bid-ask spreads will determine whether this 0% reflects genuine conviction or thin liquidity.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official Bundesliga scheduling confirmations through early May, particularly regarding squad rotation policies and any fixture postponements. Bayern's involvement in European competitions through spring 2026 may influence their approach to domestic fixtures. Wolfsburg's form trajectory in the months preceding the match and any managerial changes at either club will affect match dynamics. The settlement mechanism's precise wording—whether it covers full-time result, extra time, or specific player performance metrics—will be critical for position management as the fixture approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München - More Markets" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$406K in lifetime turnover and $2.3M of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $390K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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