Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Bundesliga game, scheduled for Saturday, May 9, 2026 between TSG 1899 Hoffenheim and SV Werder Bremen.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Draw (TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| SV Werder Bremen | 0% YES | 100% NO |
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim will host SV Werder Bremen in a Bundesliga fixture on Saturday, 9 May 2026. The settlement window closes at 13:30 UTC on that date, capturing the full-time result. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, suggesting either extremely one-sided pricing or a technical edge case where liquidity has collapsed to a single side.
Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen have competed at varying competitive levels over recent seasons. Hoffenheim, backed by SAP founder Dietmar Hopp's investment, typically finishes mid-table and occasionally challenges for European qualification. Werder Bremen, a traditional Bundesliga club with European pedigree, has experienced relegation and promotion cycles, most recently returning to the top flight in 2024. Historical head-to-head records show competitive matches with no dominant pattern, though home advantage in German football typically carries 3–5 percentage points of win probability. A 100% probability on either outcome would be historically anomalous for a fixture between sides of comparable recent standing.
Traders should monitor team news through early May, including injury updates and any unexpected squad changes announced by either club. Bundesliga fixture scheduling occasionally shifts for broadcast purposes; confirmation of the 9 May date and kick-off time should be verified against official DFL communications. Late-season form, European competition fatigue (if applicable), and relegation/qualification scenarios for either side could shift market expectations materially in the weeks preceding the match. Current pricing warrants scrutiny against available liquidity depth.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. SV Werder Bremen" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$478K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $471K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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