Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Copa do Brasil game, scheduled for Thursday, May 14, 2026 between CR Brasil and Fortaleza EC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| CR Brasil | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Draw (CR Brasil vs. Fortaleza EC) | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| Fortaleza EC | 28% YES | 73% NO |
CR Brasil will face Fortaleza EC in a Copa do Brasil fixture on Thursday, 14 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a CR Brasil victory at 38 per cent implied probability, reflecting market participants' assessment that Fortaleza enters as the stronger side. Settlement occurs at 00:30 UTC on 15 May, immediately following the final whistle.
Fortaleza has established itself as a consistent Série A competitor in recent seasons, whilst CR Brasil operates at a lower tier of Brazilian football. Historical Copa do Brasil matchups between clubs of differing league levels show that favourites from higher divisions convert their advantage roughly 60–65 per cent of the time, though cup competitions introduce volatility absent from league play. The 38 per cent probability assigned to CR Brasil suggests the market is pricing a modest underdog position, consistent with typical expectations when lower-division sides face established top-flight opponents.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official squad announcements through mid-May, particularly regarding injury status for Fortaleza's key players. Weather conditions in the host city and recent form across both sides' preceding fixtures will influence late-market movement. Copa do Brasil knockout rounds occasionally produce tactical surprises; fixture congestion affecting Fortaleza's Série A schedule in the weeks before 14 May could shift the probability if rotation or fatigue becomes evident. No major announcements affecting either club's participation have been reported as of early 2026.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/copa-do-brasil. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "CR Brasil vs. Fortaleza EC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/copa-do-brasil. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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