Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Brazil Serie B game, scheduled for Saturday, May 2, 2026 between Botafogo FC and Clube Náutico Capibaribe.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Botafogo FC | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Draw (Botafogo FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Clube Náutico Capibaribe | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Botafogo FC will face Clube Náutico Capibaribe in a Brazil Serie B fixture on Saturday, 2 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability, indicating that traders are pricing zero likelihood of a particular outcome materialising by the settlement deadline at 19:00 UTC. This extreme pricing typically emerges when market participants view one side as impossible or when liquidity remains sparse in early trading.
Botafogo, a Rio de Janeiro–based club with significant historical pedigree, competes at a different structural level than Capibaribe, a Pernambuco outfit with a smaller resource base. Serie B matches between clubs of disparate financial and organisational capacity have historically favoured the stronger institution, though upsets occur with measurable frequency—roughly 15–20% of matches in Brazil's second division produce results that defy pre-match favouritism. The 0% reading suggests traders may be anchoring to Botafogo's superior standing, though such extreme probabilities often shift once additional capital enters the market.
Traders should monitor team news in the days preceding the match, including injury reports and squad availability, which typically surface via official club communications or Brazilian sports outlets such as ESPN Brasil or Globo Esporte. Fixture congestion in the weeks before 2 May could affect squad rotation decisions. The settlement window closes at match conclusion, leaving no room for post-match clarification; accurate live scoring feeds will be essential for resolving the market.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Botafogo FC vs. Clube Náutico Capibaribe" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$763 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cbf.com.br/futebol-brasileiro/competicoes/campeonato-brasileiro-serie-b. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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