Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for SOL/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the SOL/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/SOL_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance SOL/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <40 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 40-50 | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| 50-60 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| 60-70 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| 70-80 | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| 80-90 | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| 90-100 | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| 100-110 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
This market settles on the Binance SOL/USDT spot price at noon ET on 15 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle close. The 0% implied probability reflects current order book positioning on Polymarket, where no traders have committed capital to YES outcomes across the available price brackets. The settlement mechanism is straightforward: Binance's published 1-minute candle data serves as the sole arbiter, with ties resolving to the higher bracket.
Solana's historical volatility provides context for assessing this probability distribution. Over the past eighteen months, SOL has experienced intraday swings exceeding 5–8% during periods of moderate news flow, whilst longer-term consolidations have produced tighter daily ranges. The 0% reading suggests the market is pricing either extreme confidence in a particular price floor or a structural absence of liquidity in certain bracket ranges. Comparable crypto settlement markets typically show non-zero probabilities across multiple brackets unless liquidity has genuinely dried up in those zones.
Traders monitoring this market should track Solana ecosystem developments through May 2026, including validator network health, transaction throughput metrics, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment. Federal Reserve communications and macroeconomic data releases often drive correlated moves across digital assets. The specific noon ET timestamp introduces microstructure risk; intraday volatility clustering and order book depth at that precise moment will determine settlement, independent of daily open or close prices elsewhere.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Solana price on May 15?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$465 in lifetime turnover and $677 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for solana contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $105 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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