Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is determined as the champion of the Liga MX. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed participant to be named as the champion of Liga MX per the rules of Liga MX (e.g., participant is eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If multiple teams are declared winners, this market will resolve in favor of the team whose listed name comes first alphabetically. If this event is cancelled, postponed after June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or a champion has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Guadalajara | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| Cruz Azul | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Toluca | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Pumas UNAM | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Pachuca | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| Atlas | 2% YES | 99% NO |
| Tigres UANL | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| América | 8% YES | 92% NO |
Liga MX, Mexico's top professional football division, will crown its 2025–2026 season champion by early June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 25% implied probability for the listed club, suggesting traders assess moderate but not dominant odds of capturing the title. This probability emerges from the aggregated bids and asks across the market's depth, with the spread between buyers and sellers indicating the degree of uncertainty around the outcome.
Historically, Liga MX champions have concentrated among a handful of established sides. Clubs like América, Guadalajara, and Monterrey have dominated recent seasons, collectively winning the majority of titles since 2010. The 25% probability assigned here sits within the range typical for genuine contenders—neither the prohibitive favourite nor a long shot. Comparable markets for Liga MX winners in previous cycles have shown similar probability distributions, with top-tier clubs trading between 15–35% depending on pre-season form, squad stability, and recent tournament performance.
Traders should monitor squad composition changes during the winter transfer window, injury updates to key players, and Liga MX fixture scheduling as the season progresses. Domestic cup eliminations or early-season league performance will provide concrete data points for reassessing the club's championship prospects. The settlement window closes 7 June 2026, allowing roughly two weeks after the regular season concludes for any playoff resolution or official confirmation of the champion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/liga-mx-972e863c11.png. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Liga MX: Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for soccer contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $767 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/liga-mx-972e863c11.png. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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