Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Scottish Premiership game, scheduled for Wednesday, May 13, 2026 between Motherwell FC and Celtic FC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Motherwell FC | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Draw (Motherwell FC vs. Celtic FC) | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| Celtic FC | 56% YES | 44% NO |
Motherwell and Celtic will meet in a Scottish Premiership fixture on Wednesday, 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Celtic victory at 23 per cent implied probability, reflecting the substantial gap in competitive standing between the two clubs. This settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on match day.
Celtic have dominated Scottish football over the past decade, winning multiple league titles and consistently finishing well clear of mid-table sides. Motherwell, whilst a established Premiership club, have typically finished between fourth and eighth in recent seasons. Historical head-to-head records show Celtic winning the majority of fixtures, though occasional draws and rare Motherwell victories do occur. The 23 per cent probability being formed across the order book suggests traders are pricing in a Celtic win as the baseline scenario, with meaningful probability allocated to either a draw or Motherwell upset.
Traders should monitor team news and injury updates in the days preceding the match, particularly regarding Celtic's squad availability. Late-season fixture congestion and European competition involvement—should Celtic remain in continental play—could affect squad rotation decisions. Motherwell's form in the weeks leading up to 13 May will also influence positioning, especially if they are competing for European qualification spots. Weather conditions on the day and any tactical adjustments announced by either manager in pre-match media could shift sentiment on the order book closer to kick-off.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://spfl.co.uk/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Motherwell FC vs. Celtic FC" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $229K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for scottish premiership contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $982 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://spfl.co.uk/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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