Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 2200 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 2000 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 2400 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 1950 | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| 1800 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 1900 | 92% YES | 9% NO |
The market concerns whether confirmed measles cases in the United States will reach a specified threshold by 31 May 2026, with resolution determined by CDC case counts. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 1% probability of affirmative resolution, reflecting trader expectations that cases will remain below the threshold during the first five months of 2026.
U.S. measles incidence has fluctuated considerably in recent years, shaped by vaccination coverage and outbreak dynamics. The 2019 outbreak saw 1,282 confirmed cases—the highest since measles elimination was declared in 2000—driven largely by declining immunisation rates in specific communities. By contrast, 2021 recorded only 13 cases, and 2022 saw 80 cases. The 2024 outbreak, linked to the measles-mumps-rubella vaccine uptake decline, resulted in approximately 270 confirmed cases through mid-year. These historical patterns suggest that sustained case accumulation requires either significant vaccination coverage gaps or importation events, both of which remain possible but not the baseline expectation.
Traders monitoring this market should track CDC vaccination coverage reports, which typically show national MMR uptake levels, and watch for any announced measles importations or cluster investigations. The World Health Organisation's disease surveillance updates and travel-related case reports from neighbouring countries provide early signals of potential U.S. transmission chains. School immunisation data releases and any policy changes affecting vaccination requirements would also influence outbreak risk. Current endemic transmission remains low, anchoring the market's low probability assessment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Measles cases in U.S. by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$30K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for science contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $54 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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