Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between May 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 3 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 0 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 2 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| >5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The market concerns the frequency of significant seismic activity during a specific seven-day window in May 2026. The USGS defines earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or above as those capable of causing moderate to severe damage in populated areas. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability, suggesting traders assess the likelihood of one or more such events occurring during this period as negligible or immeasurable at present.
Historically, earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or above occur globally at a rate of approximately 15 per year, or roughly one every three weeks. This translates to a baseline probability of approximately 13–15% for any given seven-day period, assuming random temporal distribution. However, seismic activity clusters regionally and temporally; major events often trigger aftershocks in the same zone, whilst other periods pass without significant activity. The current 0% pricing likely reflects either data limitations in the market's formation or an expectation that no major seismic events are forecast for early May 2026.
Traders monitoring this market should track USGS seismic forecasts and any alerts from regional monitoring agencies, particularly those covering the Pacific Ring of Fire, where approximately 90% of global seismic energy concentrates. Geological surveys occasionally issue probabilistic forecasts following significant foreshocks or in regions of elevated strain. The settlement window extends to 30 June 2026 to account for reporting delays, as the USGS may take weeks to confirm and catalogue magnitude assessments for major events.
The 1997 Manyi earthquake occurred on November 8 at 10:02 UTC. The epicenter was in Nagqu Prefecture in northern Tibet, China. The focal mechanism indicates a left-lateral strike-slip movement. This earthquake had a surface rupture of 17 km (11 mi) long with up to 7 m (23 ft) of left-lateral slip along the Manyi fault, a westward continuation of the Kunlun f
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many 6.5 or above earthquakes May 4 - May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$28K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for science contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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