Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if OPEC crude oil production (barrels per day) for the month of May, 2026, as reported in the June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The June 2026 OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report is scheduled to be published on June 11, 2026 The relevant figure is the Total OPEC crude oil production for the month of May 2026, as reported by secondary sources. This figure is typically published in thousands of barrels per day in the row labeled “Total OPEC” of Table 5-7 of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 18 Million | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| 19 Million | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| 20 Million | 19% YES | 82% NO |
| 21 Million | 11% YES | 90% NO |
OPEC's crude oil production in May 2026 will be measured against a specified threshold when the organisation publishes its Monthly Oil Market Report on 11 June 2026. The figure, drawn from secondary source data in Table 5-7, represents total OPEC crude production in thousands of barrels per day. Current order book pricing on Polymarket implies a 42% probability that May output will exceed the threshold, reflecting meaningful uncertainty about production levels five months forward.
Historical OPEC production data shows considerable month-to-month volatility driven by geopolitical disruptions, compliance with production agreements, and maintenance schedules. Between 2020 and 2025, OPEC crude output ranged from approximately 25 to 29 million barrels per day, with seasonal patterns and unplanned outages creating swings of 500,000 barrels per day or more. The current 42% probability suggests traders view the threshold as sitting near the midpoint of plausible May 2026 outcomes, neither exceptionally high nor low relative to recent production trends.
Key variables shaping May production include OPEC+ agreement compliance through early 2026, maintenance schedules at major producers including Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and any geopolitical incidents affecting supply. The organisation's March 2026 meeting will establish production targets for the second half of the year, providing crucial guidance. Traders should monitor crude inventories, global demand signals, and any announcements from major member states regarding capacity investments or production cuts in the months preceding the May settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "OPEC Crude Oil production above __ in May?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $490 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for opec contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $10 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: