Trade: Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Crude Oil futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $9K
- Total Volume
- $120K
- 24h Volume
- $138
- Open Interest
- $22K
Market outcomes
| $52 | 94% YES | 6% NO |
| $90 | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| $65 | 86% YES | 14% NO |
| $63 | 93% YES | 8% NO |
| $55 | 94% YES | 6% NO |
| $50 | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| $85 | 60% YES | 41% NO |
| $75 | 77% YES | 23% NO |
Market context
The market is pricing the probability that WTI crude oil's settlement price on the final trading day of June 2026 will exceed a specified threshold. The 94% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial confidence in oil trading above this level, though the specific strike price determines whether this represents a modest or aggressive forecast. Current positioning suggests traders view sustained crude prices as the base case through mid-2026.
Historical volatility in crude futures around quarter-end settlement dates typically ranges between 2–4%, with larger moves driven by geopolitical events or demand shocks rather than calendar effects alone. The 94% probability is notably high compared to typical six-month forecasts for commodities, suggesting either a conservative strike price or market consensus around structural support levels. Previous instances of crude settling below consensus expectations have generally required either unexpected supply surges (such as rapid OPEC+ production increases) or demand destruction signals from major economies.
Key catalysts through June 2026 include OPEC+ production decisions, US inventory data releases, and any material shifts in global growth expectations. Recent crude prices have stabilised around the $75–85 per barrel range, and traders will monitor whether this floor holds given ongoing geopolitical tensions and Chinese economic data. The settlement window closes at 18:30 UTC on 30 June, aligning with CME's final active-month contract expiration, making the exact strike price critical to evaluating whether the current 94% probability reflects genuine conviction or a compressed risk premium on an easily-cleared threshold.
Wikipedia Context
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Crude oil washing
Crude oil washing (COW) is the process of washing out residue from oil tankers using the crude oil itself.
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Crude oil stabilisation
Crude oil stabilisation is a partial distillation process that renders crude oil suitable for storage in atmospheric tanks, or of a quality suitable for sales or pipeline transportation. Stabilization is achieved by subjecting ‘live’ crude to temperature and pressure conditions in a fractionation vessel, which drives off light hydrocarbon components to form
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Crude Oil (film)
Crude Oil is a 2008 Chinese documentary film directed by Wang Bing. Filmed in the Inner Mongolian portion of the Gobi Desert, it follows a group of oil field workers as they go about their daily routine.
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Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980The Crude Oil Windfall Profit Tax Act of 1980 was enacted as part of a compromise between the Carter Administration and the United States Congress over the decontrol of crude oil prices. The Act was intended to recoup the revenue earned by oil producers as a result of the sharp increase in oil prices brought about by the OPEC oil embargo. According to a repo
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.html. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$120K in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for nymex crude oil futures contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $138 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.settlements.html. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Crude Oil (CL) above ___ end of June?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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