Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| C | — | |
| D | — | |
| A | — | |
| Democratic Party | 77% YES | 23% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| E | — | |
New York's 3rd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November 2026. The seat is currently held by Democrat Tom Suozzi, who won the seat in a 2023 special election following the resignation of George Santos. The district, which encompasses parts of Long Island and Queens, has historically leaned Democratic but remains competitive in statewide Republican wave years. The 22% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects a Republican lean in current market pricing for this seat.
Historical context suggests this probability warrants scrutiny against recent performance. NY-03 voted for Joe Biden by approximately 8 percentage points in 2020, though the district swung significantly toward Republicans in 2022 when Suozzi's predecessor Santos initially won with a narrow margin. The district's composition—suburban and relatively affluent—makes it sensitive to both national economic conditions and local demographic shifts. Comparable competitive suburban seats have shown volatility between cycles, with midterm performance often diverging sharply from presidential-year results.
Traders should monitor several developments through 2026: formal candidate announcements from both parties, redistricting outcomes if any occur, and national economic indicators affecting suburban voter sentiment. Suozzi's legislative record and any primary challenges will shape Democratic positioning. Republican candidate quality and messaging on inflation, immigration, and governance will influence whether the party can consolidate gains made in recent cycles. Polling data, when released, will provide concrete signals against the current market pricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "NY-03 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$908 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nov 4 elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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