Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new song between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Officially released means that a newly released song or single is officially available for download or streaming (not including live performances or leaks) by the resolution date. Re-releases, remixes, or alternate versions of previously released songs will not count. Songs where the listed artist appears only as a secondary or featured performer, rather than the primary artist, will also not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Drake | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| Lana Del Rey | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Nicki Minaj | 64% YES | 36% NO |
| Beyoncé | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| JAY-Z | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| BTS | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Kendrick Lamar | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Frank Ocean | 24% YES | 76% NO |
The question centres on whether a specified artist will release original music as a primary performer during 2026. The 99% implied probability reflects near-certainty that at least one new song will reach official distribution channels—streaming platforms, digital retailers, or physical release—within the calendar year. This probability is being formed by current order book activity on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in the baseline expectation that most active recording artists maintain release schedules across any given twelve-month period.
Historical precedent suggests that established artists typically release new material annually or biennially, with the vast majority of working musicians maintaining some output across a calendar year. The 99% threshold indicates traders view artist inactivity or complete silence as an outlier scenario. Factors that have previously driven "No" outcomes include extended hiatuses, health issues, legal disputes, or artists transitioning away from music entirely—events that remain statistically uncommon for artists with existing catalogue and industry presence.
Traders should monitor several catalysts through 2026: formal album announcements, tour schedules (which often correlate with new releases), record label statements, and social media activity signalling creative work. Industry reporting from sources such as Variety or Billboard typically covers major release plans months in advance. The settlement definition excludes features where the artist appears secondarily, remixes, and live recordings, narrowing the scope considerably. Any extended silence or explicit retirement announcement would be material to the resolution, though the current probability suggests markets assess such outcomes as highly unlikely for the specified artist.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which artists will release a new song in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$108K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for music contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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