Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of May 16, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| I Can't Love You Anymore - Ella Langley, Morgan Wallen | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| The Great Divide - Noah Kahan | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Be Her - Ella Langley | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Man I Need - Olivia Dean | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Doors - Noah Kahan | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Billboard Hot 100 chart published on Tuesday, 12 May 2026 will rank the week's top-performing songs based on streaming, radio airplay, and sales data collected from Friday 1 May through Thursday 7 May. That chart will be titled "Week of May 16, 2026" following Billboard's standard naming convention. The market resolves to whichever song occupies the number one position on that specific chart release.
The 100% implied probability reflects the near-certainty that Billboard will publish its Hot 100 chart as scheduled. Billboard has maintained consistent weekly publication for decades, with only rare disruptions during major holidays or unforeseen circumstances. The settlement window closes 14 May, providing a two-day buffer before the expected Tuesday release. Historical precedent shows chart publication delays are exceptional rather than routine, making non-publication an unlikely resolution path.
Traders monitoring this market should track major music releases scheduled for late April and early May 2026, as these will directly influence streaming and sales figures during the tracking week. Current chart position holders—particularly artists with momentum heading into May—represent the baseline for predicting the number one slot. Any unexpected chart volatility or surprise releases in the days before the tracking period ends could shift outcomes, though the compressed timeframe between now and the settlement window limits the information advantage available to traders. Billboard's publication schedule remains the primary dependency; any formal announcement of schedule changes would be the critical catalyst.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of May 16" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$17K in lifetime turnover and $85K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for music contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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