Trade: Insurrection Act invoked by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $25K
- Total Volume
- $1.1M
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $36K
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| December 31 | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| January 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| April 30 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The Insurrection Act of 1807 permits the President to deploy active-duty military forces domestically to suppress insurrection, rebellion, or civil disorder. Formal invocation requires the President to announce this legal authority explicitly when deploying troops. The market settles affirmatively only if Donald Trump makes such a formal declaration by 31 December 2026. Current order book pricing reflects a 6% implied probability, suggesting traders assess this as a low-likelihood event within the settlement window.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance. The Act has been invoked only twice: President George H.W. Bush in 1992 during the Los Angeles riots and President Dwight Eisenhower in 1957 for school desegregation in Arkansas. Both involved explicit presidential announcements. The threshold for formal invocation remains high; Presidents typically deploy National Guard under state governor authority or use military assets without formally citing the Act. The rarity of formal invocation—twice in over two centuries—anchors the baseline probability low, even accounting for heightened political polarisation.
Traders should monitor civil unrest incidents, particularly those concentrated in Minnesota or nationally, that might trigger military deployment discussions. Presidential statements regarding domestic security, National Guard mobilisation announcements, and Congressional responses to civil disorder represent key catalysts. The 2024 election aftermath and any subsequent periods of significant unrest would be critical observation points. News coverage from sources including Reuters and Associated Press will establish whether any formal invocation occurs and meets the market's definition of explicit presidential announcement of the Act as legal authority.
Wikipedia Context
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Insurrection Act of 1807The Insurrection Act of 1807, or just the Insurrection Act, is the U.S. federal law that empowers the president of the United States to nationally deploy the Armed Forces and to federalize the National Guard units of the individual states in specific circumstances, such as the suppression of civil disorder, of insurrection, and of armed rebellion against the
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Insurrection (TV series)
Insurrection is an Irish documentary drama portraying the 1916 Easter Rising. It was written by Hugh Leonard and directed by Michael Garvey and Louis Lentin. It was first broadcast on Telefís Éireann in Ireland on 10 April 1966, and later on the BBC in the United Kingdom, ABC in Australia, and several other European countries. Only one series of eight episod
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January 6 United States Capitol attackOn January 6, 2021, the United States Capitol in Washington, D.C., was attacked by a mob of supporters of President Donald Trump in an attempted self-coup, two months after his defeat in the 2020 presidential election. They sought to keep him in power by preventing a joint session of Congress from counting the Electoral College votes to formalize the victory
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Fourteenth Amendment to the United States ConstitutionThe Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution was adopted on July 9, 1868, as one of the Reconstruction Amendments. Considered one of the most consequential amendments, it addresses citizenship rights and equal protection under the law at all levels of government. The Fourteenth Amendment was a response to issues affecting freed slaves following
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Insurrection Act invoked by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1.1M in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for minnesota fraud contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Insurrection Act invoked by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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