Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Airbnb's total nights and seats booked for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If Airbnb's official earnings materials for Q1 2026 are released and nights and seats booked are not included, this market will resolve to "No". If Airbnb does not release quarterly earnings materials for Q1 2026 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 150 million | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 155 million | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 160 million | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Airbnb will report its first-quarter 2026 booking volumes in earnings materials expected during April or May 2026. The market tests whether total nights and seats booked will exceed a specified threshold, with settlement contingent on the metric appearing in official company disclosures. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either an extremely low threshold or minimal uncertainty among current traders about Airbnb clearing the bar.
Airbnb's booking trajectory provides context for evaluating this probability. In Q1 2025, the company reported 112.6 million nights and seats booked, representing 9% year-on-year growth despite seasonal weakness in Northern Hemisphere winter travel. Historical performance shows consistent single-digit to double-digit quarterly growth, though macroeconomic sensitivity and travel demand volatility create variance. The threshold specified in this market will determine whether the 100% probability reflects genuine consensus or simply a threshold set below reasonable downside scenarios.
Key catalysts include Airbnb's earnings announcement date—typically scheduled for late April or early May—and any interim trading updates or guidance revisions. Traders should monitor travel demand indicators, currency fluctuations (which affect international bookings), and competitive dynamics in short-term rentals heading into spring 2026. The settlement window closes 7 May 2026, allowing limited time between announcement and resolution. Any disclosure gaps regarding the nights and seats metric, though unlikely given its prominence in Airbnb's standard reporting, would trigger a "No" resolution regardless of actual performance.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Airbnb Nights and Seats Booked above ___ in Q1?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for kpis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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