Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for April 2026, scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <-50k | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| -50k – 0 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 0 – 50k | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 50k – 100k | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 100k – 150k | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 150k – 200k | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 200k – 250k | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 250k+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Bureau of Labour Statistics will release its Employment Situation Summary on 8 May 2026, reporting the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April 2026. This monthly figure, released at 8:30 AM ET, represents one of the most closely watched economic indicators in the United States, influencing Federal Reserve policy decisions and broader market sentiment. The market will resolve according to the exact jobs figure reported, with brackets determining the settlement outcome.
The current order book on Polymarket reflects 0% implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders are pricing in expectations that April's jobs figure will fall below a specific threshold. Historical context matters here: monthly nonfarm payroll additions have ranged considerably over recent years, from losses during economic contractions to gains exceeding 300,000 in recovery periods. The Federal Reserve's interest rate trajectory, inflation data, and broader economic conditions in early 2026 will shape whether employment growth accelerates, stagnates, or contracts relative to recent trends.
Traders should monitor economic releases in the weeks preceding the May jobs report, particularly initial jobless claims data and private payroll reports from ADP, which often correlate with BLS figures. Forward guidance from Federal Reserve officials and any significant market volatility in April could shift expectations around hiring momentum. The settlement window closes at midnight on 8 May 2026, immediately following the official BLS release, leaving minimal time for post-announcement repricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "How many jobs added in April?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$28K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for jobs report contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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