Trade: EagleRock IPO Closing Market Cap
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on EagleRock Land's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 14 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before July 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $6K
- Total Volume
- $687
- 24h Volume
- $687
- Open Interest
- $156
Market outcomes
| <$2.0B | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| $2.0B–$2.5B | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| $2.5B–$3.0B | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| $3.5B+ | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| $3.0B–$3.5B | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| No IPO before July 2026 | 7% YES | 93% NO |
Market context
EagleRock Land is preparing for an initial public offering with pricing scheduled for 14 May 2026, with the market resolving based on the company's market capitalisation at the closing price on its first trading day. The settlement window closes 14 May 2026, with a fallback resolution to "No IPO before July 2026" if the offering does not occur by 30 June 2026. Market capitalisation will be calculated as outstanding shares multiplied by the official closing share price on debut.
The 8% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial scepticism about the IPO proceeding as scheduled. Historical precedent suggests caution: approximately 15–20% of announced IPOs experience delays or cancellations in the months before pricing, particularly in volatile market conditions. Land-focused companies have shown mixed IPO performance in recent years, with agricultural and real estate development entities facing heightened scrutiny from underwriters regarding commodity exposure and environmental liabilities. The current probability pricing suggests traders are assigning meaningful risk to either postponement or withdrawal of the offering.
Key catalysts include EagleRock's formal SEC filings and any amendments to its prospectus, which would signal material changes to deal structure or timeline. Market conditions in May 2026—particularly equity volatility, credit spreads, and sector sentiment towards real estate and land development—will substantially influence underwriter confidence and pricing appetite. Any public statements from EagleRock's management or lead underwriters regarding deal status will move the order book materially. Traders should monitor broader IPO market activity and comparable company debuts in the land and real estate sectors during the lead-up to the May pricing window.
Wikipedia Context
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Eagle Rock, Los AngelesEagle Rock is a neighborhood of Northeast Los Angeles, abutting the San Rafael Hills in Los Angeles County, California. The community is named after Eagle Rock, a large boulder whose shadow resembles an eagle. Eagle Rock was once part of the Rancho San Rafael under Spanish and Mexican governorship. In 1911, Eagle Rock was incorporated as a city, and in 1923
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Eagle Rock (song)"Eagle Rock" is a song by Australian rock band Daddy Cool, released as their debut single in 1971 on the Sparmac record label. It went on to become the best-selling Australian single of the year, achieving gold status in eleven weeks, and remaining at No. 1 on the Kent Music Report for a (then) record ten weeks. "Eagle Rock" also spent 17 weeks at the No. 1
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Eagle Rock (formation)Eagle Rock, L.A. Historic-Cultural Monument No. 10, is a large dome-shaped rock formation with an indentation that resembles an eagle in flight. The neighborhood of Eagle Rock, where the rock is located is named after the rock. Once known as Eagle Rock Valley, it incorporated in 1911 and was annexed by Los Angeles in 1923. Given its visibility from the Ventu
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Idaho Falls, IdahoIdaho Falls is the fourth most populous city in Idaho and the county seat of Bonneville County. It is the state's most populous city outside the Boise metropolitan area. As of the 2020 census, the population of Idaho Falls was 64,818. In the 2010 census, the population of Idaho Falls was 56,813, with a metro population of 133,265. As of the 2020 census, the
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "EagleRock IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$687 in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ipos contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $687 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "EagleRock IPO Closing Market Cap"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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