Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Hang Seng Index closing price for Hang Seng (HSI) on Monday, June 1, 2026 is higher than the official Hang Seng Index closing price for HSI on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Hang Seng Index closing price for Hang Seng (HSI) on Monday, June 1, 2026 is lower than the official Hang Seng Index closing price for HSI on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 1? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
The Hang Seng Index will close on Monday, 1 June 2026 either above or below its prior trading day's close. The market currently reflects a 100% implied probability of an up move, as shown in Polymarket's order book. This extreme skew suggests either a structural imbalance in liquidity or traders pricing in a near-certainty of positive movement on that specific date. Single-day directional markets on major indices typically see more balanced probability distributions unless external factors create genuine asymmetry.
Historical single-day HSI moves show the index closes higher roughly 50–52% of trading days over extended periods, though this varies by market regime and macroeconomic conditions. The current 100% probability is therefore an outlier that warrants scrutiny. Such extreme probabilities often reflect thin order books where a small position can dominate pricing, rather than consensus conviction. Comparable single-day index markets on other exchanges rarely sustain such one-sided probabilities unless a scheduled announcement—earnings season, central bank decision, or major economic data—creates genuine directional bias.
Traders should monitor whether any significant catalysts fall on or immediately before 1 June 2026. The Hong Kong market observes the Dragon Boat Festival on 10 June that year, but 1 June itself carries no standard holiday status. Watch for announcements from the People's Bank of China, Hong Kong monetary policy decisions, or US economic data releases that could influence regional risk sentiment. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC, allowing time for the Hong Kong close to be confirmed and reflected in final pricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hang Seng (HSI) Up or Down on June 1?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$544 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for hsi contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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