Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) on May 14, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) on May 14, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 14? | 54% YES | 46% NO |
Robinhood Markets will report its closing share price on 14 May 2026, with this market resolving based on whether that close exceeds the prior trading day's settlement. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 49% implied probability for an up move, indicating near-parity between traders expecting gains versus declines over the single-day window. This balanced positioning suggests meaningful uncertainty about near-term price direction, with neither bullish nor bearish sentiment commanding clear dominance among active participants.
Single-day equity moves for established brokerages typically cluster around 1–2% in either direction absent specific catalysts. Robinhood's historical volatility has exceeded broader market averages, particularly around earnings releases and regulatory announcements. The 49% probability aligns with baseline expectations for a coin-flip outcome when no material news is anticipated. Comparable single-day resolution markets on established equities generally settle near 50–51% for "up" outcomes, reflecting a modest long bias in equity markets offset by transaction costs and bid-ask spreads.
Traders should monitor whether any earnings announcements, SEC filings, or significant market-moving events occur between now and the settlement window closing on 14 May 2026. Robinhood's sensitivity to retail trading volumes and broader equity market sentiment means broad market direction on that specific date will likely dominate the outcome. The current order book depth and spread will determine execution costs for position adjustments as new information emerges.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.HOOD%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 14?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4 in lifetime turnover and $534 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for hood contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 54%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.HOOD%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 14 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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