Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on May 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Croydon as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the London Borough of Croydon Council.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Rowenna Davis | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Jose Joseph | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person E | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person I | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person T | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person U | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Croydon's local government will hold a mayoral election on 7 May 2026, with the winner taking office as the borough's ceremonial and civic leader. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial uncertainty inherent in a contest more than a year away, where candidate fields remain largely unannounced and campaign dynamics have yet to crystallise. This pricing suggests traders are either avoiding the market entirely due to illiquidity or treating the outcome as genuinely unpredictable at this stage.
London borough mayoral elections typically feature low public salience compared to parliamentary contests, with outcomes heavily influenced by local party machinery and incumbent performance rather than national political swings. The 2022 Croydon mayoral election saw the Labour candidate elected in a borough where Labour holds dominant council representation, though turnout in such elections rarely exceeds 20–25% of eligible voters. Historical precedent suggests the Labour nominee will face the strongest odds, though this remains contingent on internal party selection processes and any local controversies that might emerge before May 2026.
Traders should monitor Croydon Council's political developments through 2025 and early 2026, particularly any announcements regarding candidate nominations from Labour, Conservative, and Liberal Democrat parties. The resolution window extends to 30 April 2027, providing substantial time for official results to be confirmed and reported through local government sources. Current illiquidity on the order book means early positions may face slippage, though the extended timeline allows for gradual market development as the election approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Croydon Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$201K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for global elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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