Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | 7% YES | 94% NO |
A military invasion of Mexico by the United States would represent a fundamental rupture in post-World War II hemispheric relations and international law. The current 7% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the market's assessment that such an event remains extraordinarily unlikely within the 2026 calendar year, though traders are pricing in non-negligible tail risk. Resolution requires a formal military offensive intended to establish territorial control, distinguishing this from cross-border operations, airstrikes, or unilateral security actions that fall short of invasion.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance for assessing this probability. The last significant U.S. military intervention in Mexico occurred in 1916 when General Pershing led a punitive expedition into Chihuahua, though this was framed as pursuit of Pancho Villa rather than territorial conquest. Since then, U.S.-Mexico relations have evolved through formal alliance structures, trade integration via NAFTA and USMCA, and institutional security cooperation. No major power has invaded another in the Western Hemisphere since 1983. The baseline expectation embedded in the 7% probability reflects the absence of structural conditions that historically precede major power conflicts: territorial disputes, resource competition, or existential security threats between the two nations.
Traders monitoring this market should track escalations in cross-border security rhetoric, particularly around drug trafficking operations or migration enforcement, as well as any significant deterioration in U.S.-Mexico diplomatic relations. Recent statements by U.S. officials regarding military options for addressing organised crime have generated market attention, though such rhetoric has not historically translated into invasion scenarios. The resolution window extends through end-2026, meaning geopolitical shifts over the next two years will determine whether this tail-risk probability adjusts materially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$106K in lifetime turnover and $34K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $402 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 7%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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