Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| April 26 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 31 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
Israel and Hezbollah have engaged in intermittent military conflict for decades, with major escalations in 2006 and again from October 2023 onwards. A permanent peace deal between the two parties would require explicit mutual agreement to cease all military hostilities indefinitely, distinguishing it from temporary ceasefires or de-escalation arrangements that have historically characterised their relationship. The current Polymarket order book reflects a 0% implied probability, indicating traders assess the likelihood of such a formalised agreement by May 2026 as negligible.
Historical precedent suggests sustained Israeli-Hezbollah peace agreements face structural obstacles. The 2006 ceasefire, brokered through UN Resolution 1701, established a demilitarised zone but never evolved into a permanent peace accord, with both parties maintaining military readiness and periodic cross-border incidents continuing. Comparable Israeli peace agreements with state actors (Egypt 1979, Jordan 1994) required direct bilateral negotiations and third-party guarantors; Hezbollah's status as a non-state actor with Iranian backing complicates analogous frameworks. The organisation's charter historically rejected recognition of Israel, though some analysts note evolving rhetoric in recent years.
Traders monitoring this market should track ceasefire negotiations currently underway in Lebanon, mediation efforts by the United States and France, and any shifts in Iran's regional posture. Announcements regarding Hezbollah's political participation in Lebanese governance or statements from Israeli leadership about permanent settlement terms would signal material developments. The eighteen-month timeframe to settlement requires rapid diplomatic movement from current conflict dynamics, making near-term peace announcements the primary catalyst for probability shifts.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$160K in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $13K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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