Trade: Greta Thunberg arrested by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Greta Thunberg is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $11K
- Total Volume
- $69K
- 24h Volume
- $191
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| December 31 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
Market context
Greta Thunberg, the Swedish climate activist, has been detained by German police on multiple occasions during protests against coal mining expansion, most recently in January 2024 at Lützerath. The market assesses the probability she will be arrested or held by law enforcement between now and 30 June 2026. Current order book activity on Polymarket implies an 11% chance of this outcome, reflecting both her history of civil disobedience and the jurisdictional variation in how protest arrests are handled across different countries.
Thunberg's arrest record provides the primary historical context. She has been detained in Sweden, Germany, and the UK—typically for brief periods during coordinated protest actions against fossil fuel infrastructure. German authorities have shown willingness to detain her at coal mine protests, whilst UK police arrested her during an anti-oil demonstration in 2023. The relatively low implied probability suggests traders weight the possibility that she may reduce protest participation, face legal restrictions on demonstration sites, or shift tactics away from direct action that invites police intervention.
Catalysts to monitor include scheduled climate protests, particularly those targeting coal or oil infrastructure in Europe; any legal proceedings from prior arrests that might affect her ability to demonstrate; and changes in protest policing strategies across jurisdictions where she is active. The Gaza-related category framing suggests traders may be considering whether international tensions or shifting activist priorities could alter her protest schedule. Announcements regarding major climate conferences or fossil fuel projects slated for 2025–2026 could increase protest activity and associated arrest risk.
Wikipedia Context
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Greta ThunbergGreta Tintin Eleonora Ernman Thunberg is a Swedish activist known for pressuring governments to address climate change and social issues. She gained global attention in 2018, at age 15, after starting a solo school strike outside the Swedish parliament, which inspired the worldwide Fridays for Future movement.
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Greta Thunberg: A Year to Change the WorldGreta Thunberg: A Year to Change the World is a three-part documentary series following the climate change activist Greta Thunberg from August 2019 to late 2020, when she was aged 16–17. She travels North America and Europe, hearing experts talk about the complex and diverse effects climate change has had, including damage to forests, the retreat of glaciers
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Speeches of Greta ThunbergSwedish climate activist Greta Thunberg has been noted for her skills as an orator. Her speech at the 2019 United Nations climate summit made her a household name. Prior to her speaking engagements, Thunberg had demonstrated outside the Swedish parliament, the Riksdag, using the signage Skolstrejk för klimatet.
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Pristimantis gretathunbergaePristimantis gretathunbergae, dubbed Greta Thunberg's rainfrog, is a species of frog in the family Strabomantidae, native to Panama. It is named in honor of Greta Thunberg, a climate activist. It lives in small pools of water held in bromeliads growing on the cloud forests of Mount Chucantí and other mountains of the Darién Gap, and of central Panama.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Greta Thunberg arrested by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$69K in lifetime turnover and $11K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for gaza contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $191 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Greta Thunberg arrested by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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