Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for May 14 at 10:00PM ET: If the New York Liberty win, the market will resolve to "New York Liberty". If the Portland Fire win, the market will resolve to "Portland Fire". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire | 65% YES | 36% NO |
The New York Liberty face the Portland Fire in a WNBA regular season matchup scheduled for 14 May at 10:00 PM ET. The Polymarket order book currently reflects a 64% implied probability of a Liberty victory, suggesting the market views New York as a clear favourite for this fixture. Settlement occurs at 02:00 UTC on 15 May, with provisions for postponement extending the resolution window and cancellation triggering a 50-50 split.
Historical WNBA matchups between these franchises and their respective seasonal trajectories provide context for the current pricing. The Liberty have established themselves as a competitive Eastern Conference side in recent seasons, whilst Portland's Fire represent a younger programme still building consistency. Head-to-head records, home-court advantage at Madison Square Garden, and current roster health significantly influence the probability distribution. Comparable games involving Liberty at home typically see them favoured by 8-12 percentage points depending on opponent strength.
Traders should monitor roster announcements through to game time, particularly regarding injury status for key players on either side. Weather conditions, though less relevant indoors, could affect travel logistics given the cross-country fixture. The WNBA's official injury reports, typically released 24 hours before tip-off, often shift market pricing materially. Recent form—Liberty's win-loss record and Portland's momentum heading into mid-May—will be reflected in any order book adjustments as the settlement window approaches. Postponement risk remains minimal given indoor venue scheduling, though traders should track any league-wide scheduling disruptions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wnba.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "New York Liberty vs. Portland Fire" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 65%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wnba.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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