Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Thiago Cigarran and Gonzalo Villanueva in the Cordoba, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Thiago Cigarran' if Thiago Cigarran advances against Gonzalo Villanueva. This market will resolve to 'Gonzalo Villanueva' if Gonzalo Villanueva advances against Thiago Cigarran. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cordoba: Thiago Cigarran vs Gonzalo Villanueva | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Thiago Cigarran vs Gonzalo Villanueva Set 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Thiago Cigarran vs Gonzalo Villanueva Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Thiago Cigarran vs Gonzalo Villanueva Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Thiago Cigarran vs Gonzalo Villanueva Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Thiago Cigarran vs Gonzalo Villanueva Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cordoba: Thiago Cigarran vs Gonzalo Villanueva Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Thiago Cigarran and Gonzalo Villanueva are scheduled to contest a first-round match at the Córdoba tennis tournament on 12 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Cigarran's advancement at 27%, implying Villanueva is favoured at 73%. This probability reflects real-time trading activity and represents the aggregate assessment of market participants weighted by their capital allocation.
Both players compete primarily on the ATP Challenger circuit, where surface preference and recent form carry substantial weight in match outcomes. Cigarran, an Argentine player, has competed in Córdoba events previously and holds familiarity with the clay courts typical of the region. Villanueva similarly operates within the South American Challenger ecosystem. Historical data from comparable clay-court Challenger matches suggests that home-region advantage and recent tournament activity—particularly within two weeks of competition—correlate with match outcomes at roughly 60–65% explanatory power. The 27% probability assigned to Cigarran suggests the market views Villanueva as holding a material edge, possibly reflecting recent ranking differential or head-to-head record.
Traders should monitor ATP Challenger draw confirmations and any injury announcements through official ATP communications in the week preceding 12 May. Weather conditions in Córdoba during May typically favour clay-court play, reducing cancellation risk. The settlement window extends to 19 May, allowing seven days for match completion; delays beyond this trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent form statements or ranking shifts published by the ATP in early May will likely shift the order book as the match date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Cordoba: Thiago Cigarran vs Gonzalo Villanueva" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$81 in lifetime turnover and $314 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for games contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $81 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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