Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <1,900 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1,900-2,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,000-2,100 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,100-2,200 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,200-2,300 | 3% YES | 98% NO |
| 2,300-2,400 | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| 2,400-2,500 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 2,500-2,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles on the Binance ETH/USDT spot price at the 12:00 noon ET candle close on 9 May 2026. The current 0% implied probability reflects the order book's assessment that the market has priced in no meaningful likelihood of settlement occurring at the specified time and price level. With the settlement window extending to May 2026, traders are pricing in substantial uncertainty around whether data will be retrievable from Binance's historical candle records or whether technical issues could prevent resolution.
Historical precedent suggests that spot price markets on major exchanges rarely fail to generate readable data, though edge cases involving exchange maintenance windows or API disruptions have occasionally complicated settlement. The 0% probability likely signals either that the specific price bracket is considered extremely unlikely, or that traders perceive material execution risk in the resolution mechanism itself. Comparable markets on Polymarket tracking specific exchange prices at defined timestamps have typically resolved without incident when exchanges remain operational.
Traders should monitor Binance's operational status and any announced maintenance windows approaching May 2026, as these could affect data availability. Ethereum's volatility profile and macroeconomic conditions in spring 2026 will determine actual price levels, though the current probability suggests the market has already discounted the likelihood of settlement at whatever bracket this market represents. The order book depth and any recent movements in related ETH perpetual or options markets may provide signals about where spot prices are expected to trade.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum price on May 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$206K in lifetime turnover and $330K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for ethereum contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $192K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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