Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Valorant match between FURIA Esports and 100 Thieves in the VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega, initially scheduled for May 8 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "FURIA Esports" if FURIA Esports win the match against 100 Thieves. This market will resolve to "100 Thieves" if 100 Thieves win the match against FURIA Esports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map Handicap: FUR (-1.5) vs 100 Thieves (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
FURIA Esports will face 100 Thieves in a best-of-three Valorant match within VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega, scheduled for 8 May at 8:00 PM ET. The current Polymarket order book shows 0% implied probability for a FURIA victory, reflecting strong market conviction towards 100 Thieves. This pricing emerges from the aggregate of limit orders and market-maker positions on the platform, with the spread between bid and ask reflecting liquidity depth at current levels.
100 Thieves have established themselves as a consistent top-four performer in VCT Americas competition, whilst FURIA have historically operated at a lower tier within the regional hierarchy. The 0% probability reflects this structural gap rather than match-specific intelligence; comparable fixtures between established NA franchises and Brazilian representatives typically settle with the NA team favoured by 70–85% implied probability depending on relative roster strength and recent form. FURIA's participation in Group Omega itself signals lower seeding relative to 100 Thieves' likely placement.
Traders should monitor roster announcements or last-minute substitutions in the 48 hours preceding the match, as personnel changes can shift competitive balance substantially. The settlement window extends to 9 May at 06:30 UTC, providing a seven-day buffer for match completion or rescheduling. Any technical issues forcing match abandonment before a winner is determined would trigger 50-50 resolution per the market terms, creating tail-risk asymmetry that may warrant position adjustment if such contingencies appear elevated.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_americas. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$503K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $450K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/valorant_americas. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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