Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the LoL match between Conviction and Blue Otter in the North American Challengers League Regular Season, initially scheduled for May 7 at 4:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Conviction" if Conviction win the match against Blue Otter. This market will resolve to "Blue Otter" if Blue Otter win the match against Conviction. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game Handicap: CNV (-1.5) vs Blue Otter (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Conviction and Blue Otter will compete in a best-of-three League of Legends match within the North American Challengers League regular season, scheduled for 7 May at 21:00 UTC. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Conviction's victory, indicating near-certainty amongst traders that the favoured team will prevail. This extreme skew suggests either substantial pre-match intelligence regarding roster strength, recent performance differentials, or limited liquidity in the market's early formation.
The Challengers League functions as North America's secondary competitive tier, where team consistency and roster stability vary considerably across the season. Historical precedent in lower-tier LoL competition shows that matches with such pronounced probability skews often reflect genuine skill gaps—teams in this division typically have accessible recent match data and established win-loss records that inform sharp traders. However, upsets do occur when teams field substitute players, experience mid-series momentum shifts, or face unexpected strategic counters. The settlement window extends to 8 May at 02:00 UTC, providing a seven-day buffer for match completion and dispute resolution.
Traders should monitor official Challengers League scheduling announcements for any postponements or roster changes announced prior to match start. Conviction's recent fixture results and Blue Otter's current player availability represent critical catalysts that could shift the order book if new information emerges. The match's best-of-three format means a single upset in game one could substantially alter perceived probabilities mid-series, though the current 100% reading leaves minimal room for such repricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/NACL. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "LoL: Conviction vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular Season" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$78K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/NACL. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: