Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 Lower bracket round 1 match between Nigma Galaxy and L1ga Team in the 1win Essence Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 9 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win the match against L1ga Team. This market will resolve to "L1ga Team" if L1ga Team win the match against Nigma Galaxy. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Total Kills Over/Under 56.5 in Game 2? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 57.5 in Game 2? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 52.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 44.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 43.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 42.5 in Game 1? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Total Kills Over/Under 41.5 in Game 1? | — | |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
Nigma Galaxy face L1ga Team in the lower bracket round one of the 1win Essence Playoffs, a Dota 2 tournament scheduled for 9 May at 08:00 ET. The match is a best-of-three format, with Nigma Galaxy needing a victory to advance and L1ga Team fighting for survival in the lower bracket. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either an absence of trading activity or a market consensus that Nigma Galaxy are prohibitive favourites, though the settlement window extends to 18:00 ET on the scheduled date, allowing for potential delays within the resolution criteria.
Nigma Galaxy, the organisation behind the former Team Liquid roster, has maintained a presence in Dota 2's competitive circuit with variable results across recent seasons. L1ga Team represents a less established competitive entity. Historical lower bracket matchups between established organisations and newer squads typically favour the former, though upsets occur with sufficient frequency that 0% probability suggests either incomplete market participation or exceptionally lopsided team strength assessments. The current probability formation on the order book may reflect limited liquidity rather than genuine certainty.
Key catalysts include official confirmation of team rosters and any last-minute roster changes, which occasionally occur before regional playoffs. Tournament organisers typically announce final schedules and venue details in the days preceding events. Any announcement of player unavailability, visa issues, or technical problems could shift market expectations materially. The five-day settlement window provides traders with opportunities to reassess as match day approaches and additional information becomes public.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/madaradota2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$186K in lifetime turnover and $392K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $186K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/madaradota2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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