Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Dota 2 Upper bracket semifinal 1 match between Inner Circle and Team Lynx in the European Pro League Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 9 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Inner Circle" if Inner Circle win the match against Team Lynx. This market will resolve to "Team Lynx" if Team Lynx win the match against Inner Circle. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Game 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Game Handicap: LYNX (-1.5) vs Inner Circle (+1.5) | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Inner Circle and Team Lynx are scheduled to compete in the upper bracket semifinal of the European Pro League Dota 2 playoffs on 9 May at 16:00 UTC. The best-of-three match determines progression toward the tournament finals. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either extreme confidence in one team's superiority or insufficient liquidity at current price levels, with no meaningful bids supporting an Inner Circle victory.
European Dota 2 competitive outcomes have historically shown volatility when roster changes occur mid-season or when teams face unfamiliar patch iterations. Inner Circle's recent form and head-to-head record against Team Lynx provide the primary reference points for assessing the current probability. Teams with stronger recent LAN placements and stable five-player rosters typically command higher implied probabilities, though upsets remain common in best-of-three formats where draft flexibility and individual player performance can shift momentum rapidly.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any official announcements from the European Pro League regarding scheduling changes through the settlement window closing on 9 May at 21:00 UTC. The match's timing relative to other regional tournaments and recent patch updates (which can favour certain hero pools) may influence team preparation levels. Cancellations or delays beyond seven days would trigger a 50-50 resolution, whilst incomplete matches with one team ahead would resolve accordingly. Current liquidity constraints appear to be driving the extreme probability rather than fundamental certainty about the outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/epldota_en2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$38K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/epldota_en2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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