Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 2 match between Wildcard and Team Aether in the Thunderpick World Championship North American Playoffs, initially scheduled for May 3 at 4:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Wildcard" if Wildcard win the match against Team Aether. This market will resolve to "Team Aether" if Team Aether win the match against Wildcard. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: WC (-1.5) vs Team Aether (+1.5) | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Wildcard and Team Aether will contest the second semifinal of the Thunderpick World Championship North American Playoffs in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match scheduled for 3 May at 21:30 UTC. The winner advances to the championship final. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split in implied probability, suggesting traders view both teams as evenly matched heading into this semifinal fixture.
Both squads have demonstrated competitive parity throughout the tournament's group stage and knockout rounds. Wildcard has established themselves as a consistent North American contender with strong map pool flexibility, whilst Team Aether has shown resilience in high-pressure matches. Historical precedent from similar tier-one regional playoffs indicates that when teams carry comparable win rates and recent form into semifinals, markets typically settle near even odds. The 50-50 probability here aligns with that pattern rather than suggesting a clear favourite.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes in the 48 hours preceding the match, as substitutions have occasionally altered competitive balance in regional playoffs. Schedule adherence matters significantly given the settlement window's seven-day buffer—any delay beyond 4 May 02:30 UTC without a completed result triggers a 50-50 resolution. Recent tournament coverage from esports outlets should clarify any outstanding fixture logistics or player availability concerns that could influence the match outcome.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/thunderpicktv. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs Team Aether (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship North American Playof" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/thunderpicktv. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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