Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 2 match between Tricked and MOUZ NXT in the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage, initially scheduled for May 10 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Tricked" if Tricked win the match against MOUZ NXT. This market will resolve to "MOUZ NXT" if MOUZ NXT win the match against Tricked. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Map Handicap: TRI (-1.5) vs MOUZ NXT (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Tricked and MOUZ NXT are scheduled to contest a Counter-Strike best-of-three match on 10 May at 04:00 ET as part of the NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for match completion, indicating traders are pricing near-certainty that the fixture will be played and settled with a decisive winner. This probability formation suggests minimal perceived risk of cancellation, postponement beyond the seven-day grace period, or an unresolved outcome.
MOUZ NXT, the academy roster of Mousesports, typically competes in developmental circuits where fixture reliability remains reasonably high, though scheduling disruptions in regional Counter-Strike tournaments are not uncommon. Tricked, a Danish-Norwegian organisation, has participated in various tier-two European competitions with variable fixture completion rates. Historical precedent from NODWIN events and similar group-stage formats shows that matches are generally played as scheduled unless organisational or technical issues emerge, which would typically surface in advance announcements.
Traders should monitor NODWIN's official communications and both teams' social channels for any schedule changes, roster complications, or tournament delays in the days immediately preceding the match. The early morning ET start time (04:00) creates potential friction for European-based operations, though this is standard for NODWIN's scheduling model. Any withdrawal by either team, technical infrastructure failures at the broadcast venue, or force majeure events would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause; absent such developments, the current 100% probability reflects the baseline expectation that the match will proceed to completion.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Tricked vs MOUZ NXT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/nodwin_cs2. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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