Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Natus Vincere and Passion UA in the IEM Atlanta Group B, initially scheduled for May 11 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Natus Vincere" if Natus Vincere win the match against Passion UA. This market will resolve to "Passion UA" if Passion UA win the match against Natus Vincere. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Map 1 Winner | 81% YES | 19% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match Winner | 91% YES | 10% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 84% YES | 17% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Passion UA (+1.5) | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Natus Vincere and Passion UA will contest an upper bracket quarterfinal match in Counter-Strike at IEM Atlanta, scheduled for 11 May at 16:30 UTC. The best-of-three format favours consistency across map pools, and Na'Vi enters as the established favourite on Polymarket's order book, where the current 80% implied probability reflects their superior recent form and international pedigree. Passion UA, a Ukrainian organisation, represents the underdog position despite regional proximity to Na'Vi's own base.
Na'Vi's dominance in tier-one Counter-Strike has been consistent through 2024 and into 2025, with multiple trophy finishes at premier events and a stable roster featuring s1mple. Passion UA competes primarily in regional and secondary-tier tournaments, creating a substantial skill gap that historical matchups between top-tier and mid-tier European sides typically reflect in 75–85% win probabilities for the stronger team. The current market pricing aligns with this precedent, suggesting traders view the outcome as relatively settled.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute substitutions through to the scheduled start time, as stand-in players or illness can shift competitive balance. IEM Atlanta's infrastructure and ESL's operational track record make cancellation or extended delays unlikely, though the settlement window extends seven days beyond the match date to accommodate technical disruptions. No recent roster announcements or injury reports have emerged to challenge the baseline matchup assessment as of early May.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$47K in lifetime turnover and $119K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $42K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/ESLCS. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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