Trade: Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs ReThink (BO3) - United21 Group D
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between MANA eSports and ReThink in the United21 Group D, initially scheduled for May 13 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "MANA eSports" if MANA eSports win the match against ReThink. This market will resolve to "ReThink" if ReThink win the match against MANA eSports. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $5K
- Total Volume
- —
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- —
Market outcomes
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Match Winner | 75% YES | 26% NO |
| Map 1 Winner | 74% YES | 27% NO |
| Map 2 Winner | 74% YES | 27% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Map Handicap: MANA (-1.5) vs ReThink (+1.5) | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
MANA eSports and ReThink are scheduled to contest a best-of-three Counter-Strike match within the United21 Group D bracket on 13 May 2026 at 04:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, suggesting traders perceive this fixture as genuinely competitive with no clear favourite emerging. This even probability distribution typically indicates either balanced team strength or insufficient historical data to differentiate performance expectations.
Counter-Strike competitive matches at this tier rarely resolve to ties or cancellations, though scheduling delays remain a material risk given the early morning ET window and potential timezone coordination issues across international rosters. The seven-day grace period for delayed matches provides meaningful protection against minor postponements, but traders should monitor tournament organisers' announcements and team roster confirmations in the days preceding the fixture. Recent esports scheduling disruptions have occasionally stemmed from visa complications or equipment logistics rather than team-level factors.
The 50-50 implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a consensus view. Traders evaluating this market should examine recent head-to-head records between these squads, current map pool preferences, and any roster changes announced after the market's opening. Given the settlement window closes at the scheduled match time, late-breaking news regarding player availability or technical issues could shift the order book materially in the final hours before play begins.
Wikipedia Context
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Counter-Strike Major ChampionshipsCounter-Strike Major Championships, commonly known as the Majors, are Counter-Strike (CS) esports tournaments sponsored by Valve, the game's developer. The first Valve-recognized Major took place in 2013 in Jönköping, Sweden and was hosted by DreamHack with a total prize pool of US$250,000 split among 16 teams. This, along with the following 19 Majors, was p
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Counter-Strike match-fixing scandal
The Counter-Strike match-fixing scandal was a 2014 match fixing scandal in the North American professional scene of Counter-Strike: Global Offensive (CS:GO). It involved a match between two teams, iBUYPOWER and NetCodeGuides.com, where questionable and unsportsmanlike performance from the team iBUYPOWER, then considered the best North American team, drew su
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Counter-Strike: Malvinas
Counter-Strike: Malvinas is an unofficial multiplayer video game map for Counter-Strike: Source, developed and distributed by Argentinian web hosting company Dattatec. The map was released on March 4, 2013 and was created using the Source game engine. The map is set in Stanley, the capital of the Falkland Islands, and revolves around a group of Argentine spe
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://kick.com/united21_en. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs ReThink (BO3) - United21 Group D" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://kick.com/united21_en. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs ReThink (BO3) - United21 Group D"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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