Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between Lilmix and Infinite in the Esplay Elite Gaming Group A, initially scheduled for May 1 at 12:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Lilmix" if Lilmix win the match against Infinite. This market will resolve to "Infinite" if Infinite win the match against Lilmix. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Match Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Odd/Even Total Rounds | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Lilmix and Infinite are scheduled to compete in a best-of-one Counter-Strike match within the Esplay Elite Gaming Group A on 1 May at 12:00 PM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability for a Lilmix victory, indicating either substantial confidence in Infinite's superiority or minimal trading activity establishing a price discovery mechanism at this early stage. With settlement occurring at 22:00 UTC on 1 May—ten hours after the scheduled match start—the window for resolution is compressed, leaving limited time for late-match developments or administrative delays to influence outcomes.
Counter-Strike competitive matchups at this tier typically exhibit volatile probability shifts once team rosters are finalised and recent performance data emerges. Historical precedent from similar Esplay tournaments shows that pre-match odds often fail to account for roster changes, player substitutions, or last-minute coaching adjustments announced within 48 hours of fixture time. The 0% implied probability suggests either that Lilmix has withdrawn, that one team's dominance is exceptionally pronounced, or that insufficient liquidity has formed to establish a meaningful market price.
Traders should monitor official Esplay announcements regarding team confirmations and any schedule changes, particularly given the tight settlement window. Fixture cancellations or delays beyond 7 days trigger a 50-50 resolution, whilst forfeits or disqualifications during play resolve to the winning team. Recent esports scheduling disruptions have occasionally occurred without advance notice; confirmation of both teams' participation status and venue availability should be verified closer to the 12:00 PM ET start time.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.twitch.tv/esplaycom. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs Infinite (BO1) - Esplay Elite Gaming Group A" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$23K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for esports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.twitch.tv/esplaycom. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: