Resolution criteria on PolyGram: As of market creation, Alibaba is estimated to release earnings on May 13, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Alibaba’s non-GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $0.84 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alibaba reports non-GAAP EPS greater than $0.84 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the non-GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. If Alibaba releases earnings without non-GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the non-GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings? | 57% YES | 43% NO |
Alibaba will report quarterly earnings on 13 May 2026, with the market resolving based on whether non-GAAP EPS exceeds the Street consensus estimate of $0.84. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 54% implied probability of a beat, suggesting roughly even odds amongst traders. This probability sits near the historical baseline for large-cap technology earnings, where consensus estimates tend to be calibrated fairly tightly, though Alibaba's China-focused revenue streams introduce distinct macroeconomic variables absent from purely domestic US tech comparables.
Alibaba's earnings performance hinges on several observable factors. Cloud computing revenue growth, which has become material to overall profitability, depends on enterprise spending patterns in China's technology sector. Currency fluctuations between the yuan and US dollar will directly affect reported dollar-denominated EPS. Regulatory developments affecting e-commerce operations or cross-border commerce remain a structural consideration for the stock. Recent quarterly results have shown volatility in margins, with the company navigating competitive pressures in logistics and marketplace services alongside cost discipline initiatives announced in prior periods.
The settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC on 13 May, immediately following the expected earnings release. Traders should monitor Alibaba's official investor relations announcements for the precise earnings date and any pre-release guidance adjustments. The non-GAAP EPS figure from the company's official earnings documents will serve as the sole resolution source, making the distinction between GAAP and non-GAAP reporting material to final settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://seekingalpha.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Will Alibaba (BABA) beat quarterly earnings?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$166 in lifetime turnover and $154 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for equities contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $117 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 57%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://seekingalpha.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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