Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit May 11-17?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 94,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 92,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↑ 90,000 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↑ 88,000 | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| ↑ 86,000 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| ↑ 84,000 | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| ↑ 82,000 | 75% YES | 25% NO |
| ↓ 78,000 | 42% YES | 59% NO |
Bitcoin's price action during the week of 11–17 May 2026 will determine whether the asset reaches a specific threshold during that seven-day window. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 1% implied probability, suggesting traders assess the likelihood of this outcome as remote relative to Bitcoin's anticipated trading range in May 2026. This probability is formed through continuous order matching, with the spread between buy and sell orders indicating where marginal traders currently value the event's occurrence.
Historical volatility patterns show Bitcoin typically experiences 5–8% weekly price swings during periods of moderate market conditions, though catalyst-driven moves can exceed 15% in either direction. The May 2026 settlement window falls roughly 18 months forward, a timeframe where long-dated Bitcoin price predictions carry substantial uncertainty. Comparable outcomes priced at 1% on Polymarket have historically occurred when the required price movement sits 20–30% beyond consensus expectations for the settlement period, based on implied volatility derived from options markets and recent price action.
Traders monitoring this contract should track macroeconomic data releases scheduled for early May 2026, including US employment figures and inflation reports, which typically influence risk appetite and cryptocurrency valuations. Regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies could also shift Bitcoin's trajectory substantially. The contract's settlement date of 18 May 2026 provides a hard deadline, meaning any price movement must occur within the specified week rather than across an extended period, which compounds the difficulty of the outcome relative to longer-duration price targets.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit May 11-17?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$44K in lifetime turnover and $172K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $44K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 18 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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