Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Dogecoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream DOGE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Dogecoin's price movement over a five-minute window on 5 May 2026 at 21:55–22:00 ET will determine this market's resolution, with settlement occurring the following day. The market currently shows 100% implied probability for an upward or flat price movement, reflecting the Chainlink DOGE/USD data stream as the binding reference. This extreme probability skew suggests either minimal expected volatility during the specified window or substantial order book imbalance on Polymarket's book.
Five-minute crypto price windows historically exhibit high variance relative to their duration, particularly for assets like Dogecoin that experience retail-driven volatility. Comparable ultra-short-duration markets on established prediction platforms have shown that such extreme probabilities often reflect illiquidity rather than genuine certainty about directional movement. Dogecoin's typical intraday volatility ranges between 2–5%, meaning even modest trading activity or coordinated selling could shift prices downward within a five-minute span. The current 100% probability suggests either very few orders have been placed against the "Down" position, or the market has attracted minimal participation ahead of the settlement window.
Traders should monitor Dogecoin's broader price action in the days preceding 5 May, as macro sentiment shifts, Bitcoin correlation patterns, or social media-driven rallies could establish momentum heading into the settlement window. Chainlink's data feed reliability and any scheduled maintenance should be verified independently. The specificity of the five-minute window means that even minor exchange-level price discrepancies or flash movements could influence resolution, making the current probability assessment potentially unstable as the settlement date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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