Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Citrea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Citrea will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $40M | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| $100M | 74% YES | 27% NO |
| $200M | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| $500M | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| $1B | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| $20M | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| $80M | 91% YES | 9% NO |
| $150M | 71% YES | 29% NO |
Citrea, a Bitcoin Layer 2 scaling solution, is preparing to launch its native token. The market is pricing the probability that the token's fully diluted valuation will exceed a specified threshold within 24 hours of going live. Current Polymarket order book activity reflects a 96% implied probability of this outcome, suggesting traders expect a strong initial valuation upon launch. The FDV will be calculated by multiplying total token supply by the observed trading price at 4:00 PM ET on the day following launch.
Historical precedent from recent Layer 2 token launches shows considerable variation in initial FDV outcomes. Arbitrum's ARB token launched in March 2023 with an FDV exceeding $12 billion on day one, whilst Optimism's OP token in May 2022 reached approximately $2 billion FDV immediately post-launch. The divergence reflects differences in community size, ecosystem maturity, and market conditions at launch. Bitcoin-native scaling solutions have generally attracted institutional interest, though volatility in the first 24 hours remains substantial.
Key variables affecting the resolution include the timing of the official token launch announcement, the initial exchange listings secured, and broader cryptocurrency market conditions in the weeks preceding launch. Citrea's positioning within the Bitcoin ecosystem and any partnerships announced beforehand will influence initial trading volume and price discovery. Traders should monitor official Citrea communications and exchange listing announcements, as these directly determine whether trading commences within the settlement window and at what valuation.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Citrea FDV above ___ one day after launch?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $35K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $6 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2028. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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