Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the BNB price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BNB/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| BNB Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether BNB trades higher or equal to its opening price during a five-minute window on 8 May 2026, measured via Chainlink's BNB/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects zero probability for an upward movement, indicating traders are pricing in a decline or flat performance during this specific interval. Such extreme probabilities on short-duration crypto markets typically emerge when orderbook liquidity is sparse or when positioning reflects broader sentiment rather than granular price expectations.
Ultra-short-window crypto markets rarely accumulate significant trading volume, leaving them susceptible to wide probability swings based on minimal order activity. Historical five-minute BNB movements show typical intraday volatility of 0.1–0.5% during standard market hours, making directional certainty difficult to establish. The 0% probability here likely reflects either thin liquidity on the yes side or traders' preference to avoid the execution risk inherent in predicting such brief intervals. Comparable micro-duration markets on Polymarket have occasionally resolved contrary to extreme probabilities when unexpected volatility or data feed timing issues materialise.
Traders monitoring this market should note that BNB's price action on 8 May will depend on broader cryptocurrency market conditions that day, alongside any announcements affecting Binance or the wider ecosystem. Chainlink's data feed aggregates prices from multiple sources, so resolution hinges on that specific feed's timestamp rather than any single exchange. The settlement window's proximity to market open in major trading regions may introduce additional volatility, though the five-minute span limits exposure to major news events.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "BNB Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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