Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT May 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market measures Bitcoin's intraday directional movement between two specific noon timestamps on consecutive days, using Binance's BTC/USDT 1-minute candle closes as the settlement source. The 70% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader conviction that Bitcoin will close higher at noon ET on 9 May 2026 than it did at noon ET on 8 May 2026. The market structure creates a narrow resolution window—a single-candle comparison across a 24-hour period—which differs substantially from broader daily or weekly Bitcoin price movements that typically command more liquidity.
Historical intraday Bitcoin volatility suggests that noon-to-noon comparisons across consecutive days show directional bias roughly 55–60% of the time in either direction during periods of moderate market conditions, with the remaining outcomes split between flat closes and sharp reversals. The current 70% YES probability is elevated relative to these baseline frequencies, indicating the order book is pricing in either expected bullish momentum, reduced volatility expectations, or both. Polymarket's depth at this probability level will determine execution costs for traders seeking to adjust positions.
Traders should monitor macroeconomic calendar events scheduled between 8–9 May 2026, particularly US employment data or Federal Reserve communications, which historically drive intraday Bitcoin volatility. Binance's own platform stability and any scheduled maintenance windows during the settlement period warrant attention. Spot and futures funding rates on major exchanges in the days preceding the settlement window can signal positioning extremes that often precede reversals.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin Up or Down on May 9?" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$219K in lifetime turnover and $30K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $218K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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