Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market settles based on whether Bitcoin's price on Binance's BTC/USDT pair closes at or above its opening level during the one-hour candle beginning 2 May 2026 at 2:00 AM Eastern Time. The resolution hinges on a single hourly candle's directional movement, making it sensitive to intraday volatility and order flow during that specific window.
The current 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects extreme confidence in an upward or flat close, though such certainty in short-duration crypto markets warrants scrutiny. Historical hourly Bitcoin candles show roughly 51–52% close above open across neutral market conditions, suggesting the current pricing deviates substantially from baseline expectations. The gap between this market's probability and typical hourly directional distributions indicates either significant information advantage among current traders or illiquidity in the order book constraining price discovery.
Traders should monitor macroeconomic announcements scheduled near the settlement window, particularly US economic data releases or Federal Reserve communications that could drive broader risk-asset sentiment. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures and the broader crypto market's positioning matters considerably for a single-hour candle; large liquidations or flash volatility in related markets could reverse the candle's direction rapidly. Binance's own operational status and any trading halts would affect settlement mechanics, though such events remain uncommon. The five-hour window between candle open and market settlement close provides opportunity for positions to shift materially as real-time price action emerges.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram crypto-price event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$63K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for crypto contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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