Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ≤47 | 26% YES | 75% NO |
| 49 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 51 | 17% YES | 84% NO |
| 53 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 55 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 57+ | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 48 | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| 50 | 20% YES | 81% NO |
The 2026 midterm elections will determine control of the US Senate, with Republicans currently holding 53 seats. The chamber's composition shifts every two years as roughly one-third of seats face election. The current Polymarket order book implies a 26% probability that Republicans will hold fewer seats after November 2026 than they do today, suggesting traders expect the party to maintain or gain ground. This probability reflects expectations about seat gains and losses across the 34 Senate races scheduled for that cycle.
Historical midterm patterns provide context for evaluating this implied probability. The party holding the presidency typically loses Senate seats in midterm elections—the average loss since 1950 is roughly three seats. However, outcomes vary considerably depending on the political environment and which seats are contested. In 2022, Republicans gained one seat despite historical headwinds. The 2026 map favours Republicans structurally, with Democrats defending significantly more vulnerable seats than Republicans, particularly in states Trump won in 2020.
Key variables will shape the trajectory between now and November 2026. Economic conditions, approval ratings for the sitting president, and major legislative or foreign policy developments will influence voter sentiment. Candidate recruitment and primary outcomes in competitive races—particularly in states like Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Arizona—will clarify the competitive landscape. Special elections or unexpected retirements could alter the baseline expectations. Traders should monitor quarterly fundraising reports and polling aggregates as the election cycle intensifies through 2025 and into 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2.2M in lifetime turnover and $307K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for congress contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $79K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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