Trade: Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official CME settlement price for the Active Month (front month) of Silver (SI) futures is equal to or above the listed price by the final trading day of June 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $224K
- Total Volume
- $4.0M
- 24h Volume
- $22K
- Open Interest
- $639K
Market outcomes
| ↑ $200 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↑ $150 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↑ $120 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| ↑ $110 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $100 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $90 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $85 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑ $80 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Market context
Silver futures on the CME are currently trading well below the threshold price required for this market to resolve affirmatively by end-June 2026. The contract specification requires the Active Month silver futures settlement price to reach or exceed the listed strike on any trading day through the final trading day of June 2026. With the 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, traders are pricing an exceptionally low likelihood of this price target being met over the next eighteen months.
Historical silver volatility provides context for evaluating this probability. Over the past decade, silver has experienced sustained rallies driven by industrial demand, inflation hedging, and macroeconomic shifts, yet achieving specific price targets within defined timeframes remains challenging. The 2020–2021 retail trading surge pushed silver to $30 per ounce, whilst the 2008 financial crisis saw prices spike above $20. However, the current probability reflects the difficulty of predicting directional moves in commodities markets with precision, particularly when settlement windows span extended periods and depend on specific contract mechanics around active month designation.
Traders monitoring this market should track industrial demand signals, particularly from solar and electronics manufacturing, alongside Federal Reserve policy communications and real interest rates, which significantly influence precious metals valuations. The CME's contract roll schedule—where the Active Month designation shifts between March, May, July, September, and December contracts—creates technical considerations affecting settlement mechanics. Recent inflation data and geopolitical developments affecting supply chains remain relevant catalysts, though the current order book pricing suggests the market views the specified price target as substantially out-of-the-money relative to baseline forecasts.
Wikipedia Context
-
Silver Side UpSilver Side Up is the third studio album by Canadian rock band Nickelback, released on September 11, 2001. According to AllMusic, Silver Side Up continued Nickelback's tradition of "dark high-octane rock" from the band's first two albums. It reached number one in Canada, Austria, Ireland, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The album was certified 8× Platin
-
Silver SisterhoodThe Silver Sisterhood was a new religious movement that was active in Burtonport, County Donegal, Ireland from 1982 to 1992. The group has also been referred to as the Rhennish Community and St. Bride's. English writer Miss Martindale was a prominent member. The community is known for creating early text adventure video games such as The Snow Queen and Jack
-
Silver Siegers
Silver Naara Louise Siegers is a Dutch cricketer. In July 2018, she was named in the Netherlands' squad for the 2018 ICC Women's World Twenty20 Qualifier tournament. She made her Women's Twenty20 International (WT20I) debut for the Netherlands against Bangladesh in the World Twenty20 Qualifier on 8 July 2018.
-
Silver Siege Rhyton
The Silver Siege Rhyton is a silver vessel discovered in Shaft Grave IV of Grave Circle A at Mycenae and is dated to c. 1600–1500 BCE, or during the Late Helladic I period. The rhyton was likely used for the transportation of libation for use in sacred ritual and is so named for its relief depicting an attack on a fortified town. The abundance of precious me
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.settlements.html. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$4.0M in lifetime turnover and $224K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for comex silver futures contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $22K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.settlements.html. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will Silver (SI) hit__ by end of June?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: