Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Warner Bros. Discovery will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity by 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no merger or acquisition takes place by the specified date, this market will resolve to "No Acquisition by May 31, 2026". An official announcement will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the merger or acquisition is ultimately completed. Any merger or acquisition will qualify regardless of whether it regards Warner Bros Discovery's entire company or separate transactions for its Warner Bros. or Discovery Global businesses.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Paramount | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Amazon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Comcast | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| No Acquisition by May 31, 2026 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Netflix | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| placeholder b | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| placeholder c | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| placeholder d | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Warner Bros. Discovery, formed through the 2022 merger of WarnerMedia and Discovery Inc., remains one of the world's largest media conglomerates with a market capitalisation around $40bn. The question of whether the company will be acquired or merged with another entity by May 2026 currently shows zero probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting trader consensus that such a transaction is unlikely within this timeframe. The 0% implied probability suggests the market perceives substantial structural and regulatory barriers to any near-term consolidation.
Historical precedent offers context for reading this probability. Major media acquisitions have faced extended regulatory scrutiny—the AT&T-Time Warner deal took over a year for approval, whilst the proposed Broadcom-Qualcomm merger was blocked entirely on national security grounds. Warner Bros. Discovery itself emerged from a complex merger process, and any subsequent acquisition would likely trigger similar antitrust reviews from the Federal Trade Commission and international regulators. The company's size, content library, and distribution networks make it a strategically sensitive asset, raising the bar for approval significantly.
Near-term catalysts remain limited. No credible acquisition rumours have surfaced in recent reporting, and the company's leadership under David Zaslav has focused on operational restructuring rather than signalling openness to takeover. Traders should monitor quarterly earnings announcements and any strategic partnership announcements, though these typically precede formal acquisition discussions. The May 2026 settlement window provides roughly 18 months for an announcement to materialise, a compressed timeframe given regulatory timelines for deals of this magnitude.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will acquire Warner Bros. Discovery?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$458K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for business contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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