Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - USA chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbLRQDuF5jeBp.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ariana Grande | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| Beyonce | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| The Weeknd | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Gracie Abrams | 25% YES | 75% NO |
| Bad Bunny | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Olivia Dean | 24% YES | 77% NO |
| Olivia Rodrigo | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Don Toliver | 19% YES | 81% NO |
The question centres on whether any of a specified set of artists will occupy the number one position on Spotify's Top 50 USA chart for at least one day during May 2026. Resolution depends exclusively on primary artist profiles; featured appearances on other artists' tracks do not qualify. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 54% implied probability for a "Yes" outcome, suggesting roughly even odds that at least one artist from the listed cohort reaches the summit during that month.
Historical precedent suggests chart dominance concentrates among a relatively small number of artists. Over the past two years, approximately 60–70% of monthly number one positions on Spotify's USA chart have been held by artists with existing catalogue strength or recent major releases. Artists with established fanbases and consistent streaming volume—those with prior top-ten placements—achieve number one status more frequently than debut or emerging acts. This baseline informs how the current 54% probability should be evaluated: it implies meaningful but not overwhelming likelihood that the specified artists will capture at least one peak position.
Traders should monitor release schedules, particularly any announced singles or albums from listed artists scheduled for April or May 2026, as new releases substantially increase charting velocity. Playlist placement decisions by Spotify's editorial team also influence streaming distribution. Industry announcements regarding tour dates, festival appearances, or collaborations can signal promotional momentum. Chart performance in April will provide concrete data on streaming trends heading into May, offering traders real-time signals to reassess positioning as the settlement window approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which artists will have #1 hits in the US in May?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for billboard contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $254 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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