Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the second-highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Anthropic | 83% YES | 17% NO |
| 14% YES | 87% NO | |
| Alibaba | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Amazon | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Z.ai | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Company E | — | |
| Company J | — | |
| Company K | — | |
The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard ranks large language models by head-to-head performance across thousands of user conversations, with rankings updated continuously as new evaluations accumulate. This market resolves on which company owns the model ranked second on that leaderboard as of 31 May 2026, using the "Style Control On" variant that standardises response formatting. The current order book on Polymarket reflects an 85% probability that a specific company will hold that #2 position at settlement, suggesting traders view the outcome as highly likely but not certain.
Historical leaderboard dynamics show significant volatility in top rankings. Over the past eighteen months, the #2 position has shifted between Anthropic, OpenAI, and Meta as each released new model versions. Rank movements typically correlate with major model releases—Claude 3.5 Sonnet's October 2024 launch, for instance, substantially altered the competitive hierarchy. The current 85% implied probability suggests the market is pricing in either continuity of the present #2 holder or a high-confidence prediction about which challenger will claim that slot by May 2026.
Traders should monitor announcements from Anthropic, OpenAI, Meta, Google DeepMind and other frontier labs, as new model releases directly reshape leaderboard positions. The timing of major releases between now and May 2026 will be critical—any significant capability jump could reshuffle rankings substantially. Additionally, changes to Chatbot Arena's evaluation methodology or the weighting of different task categories could influence which models rank highest, though such modifications are relatively infrequent.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which company has the #2 AI model end of May? (Style Control On)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $36K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ai contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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