Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next model released by DeepSeek has at least the specified score on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the date after the day of the release, 12:00 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1480+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1460+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 1500+ | 0% YES | 100% NO |
DeepSeek's next model release will be evaluated against the Arena.ai Leaderboard's text benchmark, with resolution dependent on whether it achieves a specified score within 24 hours of launch. The market currently shows 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book, reflecting either high uncertainty about DeepSeek's release timeline or scepticism that their next model will meet the threshold when measured against competing systems on this particular evaluation framework.
Historical context matters here: DeepSeek has released models at irregular intervals, with their R1 reasoning model arriving in late 2024 after extended development periods. Arena.ai rankings shift continuously as new models debut and existing ones are benchmarked; achieving a top-tier score requires not just capability but timely evaluation on the leaderboard. Previous DeepSeek releases have performed competitively but haven't consistently dominated the rankings relative to frontier models from other labs. The 0% probability likely reflects the compounded uncertainty: release timing is unannounced, the specific score threshold is unspecified in this market description, and Arena rankings are volatile.
Traders should monitor DeepSeek's official announcements and GitHub repositories for release signals. Recent industry pattern shows major model releases often cluster around conference periods or strategic announcement windows. The resolution hinges on two dependencies: actual model availability and timely Arena.ai evaluation, both outside market participants' control. Any public indication of imminent release would likely shift the order book substantially from its current position.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Next DeepSeek Model: Arena Debut?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$67K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for ai contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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